Neutralization Escape by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariant BA.2.86 (preprint)

The continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 may lead to evasion of vaccine immunity and natural immunity. A highly mutated Omicron variant BA.2.86 has recently been identified with over 30 amino acid changes in Spike compared with BA.2 and XBB.1.5. As of September 4, 2023, BA.2.86 has been identified in 37 sequences from 10 countries, which is likely an underestimate due to limited surveillance. The ability of BA.2.86 to evade NAbs compared with other currently circulating Omicron variants remains unknown. Our data show that NAb responses to BA.2.86 were lower than to BA.2 but were comparable or slightly higher than to the current circulating recombinant variants XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, EG.5, EG.5.1, and FL.1.5.1.

Mutational basis of serum cross-neutralization profiles elicited by infection or vaccination with SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

A series of SARS-CoV-2 variants emerged during the pandemic under selection for neutralization resistance. Convalescent and vaccinated sera show consistently different cross-neutralization profiles depending on infecting or vaccine variants. To understand the basis of this heterogeneity, we modeled serum cross-neutralization titers for 165 sera after infection or vaccination with historically prominent lineages tested against 18 variant pseudoviruses. Cross-neutralization profiles were well captured by models incorporating autologous neutralizing titers and combinations of specific shared and differing mutations between the infecting/vaccine variants and pseudoviruses. Infecting/vaccine variant-specific models identified mutations that significantly impacted cross-neutralization and quantified their relative contributions. Unified models that explained cross-neutralization profiles across all infecting and vaccine variants provided accurate predictions of holdout neutralization data comprising untested variants as infecting or vaccine variants, and as test pseudoviruses. Finally, comparative modeling of 2-dose versus 3-dose mRNA-1273 vaccine data revealed that the third dose overcame key resistance mutations to improve neutralization breadth.

SARS-CoV-2 variant transition dynamics are associated with vaccination rates, number of co-circulating variants, and natural immunity (preprint)

Background: Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has continued to evolve, with new variants outcompeting existing variants and often leading to different dynamics of disease spread. Methods: In this paper, we performed a retrospective analysis using longitudinal sequencing data to characterize differences in the speed, calendar timing, and magnitude of 13 SARS-CoV-2 variant waves/transitions for 215 countries and sub-country regions, between October 2020 and October 2022. We then clustered geographic locations in terms of their variant behavior across all Omicron variants, allowing us to identify groups of locations exhibiting similar variant transitions. Finally, we explored relationships between heterogeneity in these variant waves and time-varying factors, including vaccination status of the population, governmental policy, and the number of variants in simultaneous competition. Findings: This work demonstrates associations between the behavior of an emerging variant and the number of co-circulating variants as well as the demographic context of the population. We also observed an association between high vaccination rates and variant transition dynamics prior to the Mu and Delta variant transitions. Interpretation: These results suggest the behavior of an emergent variant may be sensitive to the immunologic and demographic context of its location. Additionally, this work represents the most comprehensive characterization of variant transitions globally to date. Funding: Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD), Los Alamos National Laboratory

Substantial Neutralization Escape by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant BQ.1.1 (preprint)

Omicron BA.5 has been the globally dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant and has demonstrated substantial neutralization escape compared with prior variants. Additional Omicron variants have recently emerged, including BA.4.6, BF.7, BA.2.75.2, and BQ.1.1, all of which have the Spike R346T mutation. In particular, BQ.1.1 has rapidly increased in frequency, and BA.5 has recently declined to less than half of viruses in the United States. Our data demonstrate that BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 escape NAbs induced by infection and vaccination more effectively than BA.5. BQ.1.1 NAb titers were lower than BA.5 NAb titers by a factor of 7 in two cohorts of individuals who received the monovalent or bivalent mRNA vaccine boosters. These findings provide the immunologic context for the rapid increase in BQ.1.1 prevalence in regions where BA.5 is dominant and have implications for both vaccine immunity and natural immunity.

Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 clinical isolates (preprint)

The prevalence of the Omicron subvariant BA.2.75 is rapidly increasing in India and Nepal. In addition, BA.2.75 has been detected in at least 34 other countries and is spreading globally. However, the virological features of BA.2.75 are largely unknown. Here, we evaluated the replicative ability and pathogenicity of BA.2.75 clinical isolates in Syrian hamsters. Although we found no substantial differences in weight change among hamsters infected with BA.2, BA.5, or BA.2.75, the replicative ability of BA.2.75 in the lungs was higher than that of BA.2 and BA.5. Of note, BA.2.75 caused focal viral pneumonia in hamsters, characterized by patchy inflammation interspersed in alveolar regions, which was not observed in BA.5-infected hamsters. Moreover, in competition assays, BA.2.75 replicated better than BA.5 in the lungs of hamsters. These results suggest that BA.2.75 can cause more severe respiratory disease than BA.5 and BA.2 and should be closely monitored.

Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks (FEVER): A computational tool for biosurveillance, diagnostics, and mutation typing of emerging viral pathogens (preprint)

ABSTRACT Viral pathogen can rapidly evolve, adapt to novel hosts and evade human immunity. The early detection of emerging viral pathogens through biosurveillance coupled with rapid and accurate diagnostics are required to mitigate global pandemics. However, RNA viruses can mutate rapidly, hampering biosurveillance and diagnostic efforts. Here, we present a novel computational approach called FEVER (Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks) to design assays that simultaneously accomplish: 1) broad-coverage biosurveillance of an entire class of viruses, 2) accurate diagnosis of an outbreak strain, and 3) mutation typing to detect variants of public health importance. We demonstrate the application of FEVER to generate assays to simultaneously 1) detect sarbecoviruses for biosurveillance; 2) diagnose infections specifically caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); and 3) perform rapid mutation typing of the D614G SARS-CoV-2 spike variant associated with increased pathogen transmissibility. These FEVER assays had a high in silico recall (predicted positive) up to 99.7% of 525,708 SARS-CoV-2 sequences analyzed and displayed sensitivities and specificities as high as 92.4% and 100% respectively when validated in 100 clinical samples. The D614G SARS-CoV-2 spike mutation PCR test was able to identify the single nucleotide identity at position 23,403 in the viral genome of 96.6% SARS-CoV-2 positive samples without the need for sequencing. This study demonstrates the utility of FEVER to design assays for biosurveillance, diagnostics, and mutation typing to rapidly detect, track, and mitigate future outbreaks and pandemics caused by emerging viruses.

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

We have developed an analysis pipeline to facilitate real-time mutation tracking in SARS-CoV-2, focusing initially on the Spike (S) protein because it mediates infection of human cells and is the target of most vaccine strategies and antibody-based therapeutics. To date we have identified thirteen mutations in Spike that are accumulating. Mutations are considered in a broader phylogenetic context, geographically, and over time, to provide an early warning system to reveal mutations that may confer selective advantages in transmission or resistance to interventions. Each one is evaluated for evidence of positive selection, and the implications of the mutation are explored through structural modeling. The mutation Spike D614G is of urgent concern; it began spreading in Europe in early February, and when introduced to new regions it rapidly becomes the dominant form. Also, we present evidence of recombination between locally circulating strains, indicative of multiple strain infections. These finding have important implications for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, pathogenesis and immune interventions.